Online Trade Survey
This is the home page
for the survey into online trade finance, PhD research by Mark Dixon of The
University of Western Australia.
General information about the
research appears here. Invited participants may register, take the survey, and access the discussion forum by clicking the buttons below.
Who is involved in this study?
Those involved in the development and use of systems for trade can be loosely
grouped into a few categories:
- Financial institutions that provide trade finance.
- Finance managers in businesses (notably importers, exporters, insurers, carriers and
freight forwarding services) that use trade finance.
- Government agencies such as customs, quarantine, economic planners, and
agencies of national security.
- Researchers, academics, and writers that study international trade, banking and
finance.
People in these groups necessarily have different perspectives on trade
and its finance and so this study seeks input from interested parties in each
group. Recognized leaders from each of these categories are being contacted
in 2003 to
invite their participation.
If
you have received an invitation to participate but have not yet registered,
please click the "Register" button, above. If you, or your organization, have an
interest in trade and trade finance and wish to participate in this survey please contact the researcher Mark
Dixon.
How will participants benefit from this study?
All participants will be supplied with the detailed results of the study
which is expected to conclude in 3rd quarter 2003. Whichever group you
represent, the findings of this study should provide you with useful insights and
a potential competitive edge in trade and finance. The process is likely to extend your professional network of contacts, highlight new
information sources available to you, and provide you with up-to-date opinion on
a vital new area, not just from your own perspective but also that of users,
service providers, policy makers and academic view-points.
How much time will this study take?
If you choose to participate, you will receive a short list of questions that ask for your opinion on the directions of and forces influencing online services for international trade finance and banking.
Responding will probably take you less than half an hour.
Within four weeks of receiving responses I hope to provide you with a
synthesis and analysis of the groups' opinions and present a second list of
questions. The next list of questions will be more specific but will
probably take less time to answer. A synthesis of the second round
responses and a third round questionnaire is also likely. Within two
months of the third round I expect to be able to report the analysis of the
whole process to all participants.
Concurrent with, and after the study, I am running an online discussion forum for these issues.
The forum should provide some extra detail in some areas due to a quicker
turn-around than the Delphi study. This
part of the process is optional but is expected to be highly informative and
rewarding for those with a few minutes a week. The discussion forum
is set up as an online bulletin board (click
here to see the forum).
What is the Delphi method?
To answer questions like those above, one of the best methods is to collate
expert opinion. In the 1950s and '60s Dalkey and Helmer at the Rand
Corporation in the United States developed a method for doing such a
collation. The Delphi method, as it came to be known, has been used
successfully since then to make useful predictions in complex areas where highly
developed expertise is required. The name "Delphi" was adopted
from the Greek legends
of the oracle at Delphi, a priestess who was consulted on matters of
national or great personal importance. The Delphi method has achieved recognition in research circles for its useful
contributions to the science of forecasting as described
in an informative essay at Illinois Institute of Technology. This
particular Delphi study uses an additional "online" component - you can
contribute to, and follow the thread of some of the questions in a
bulletin-board discussion forum which is open only to participants. Once
you register, a logon id and password for that part of the web-site will be sent
to you.
