The survey is now complete. A report to participants is being mailed to participants this week (24th Jan 2004) and should arrive by international post within two weeks.

Many thanks for your assistance.

For historical reference only, the questions in each of the three rounds
can be viewed here: Round 1; Round 2; Round 3.

Round 1 Questionnaire

Thank you for agreeing to join the Delphi survey of expert opinion on Online Services for Trade Finance and Banking. Your responses to the questions below will be collated with those of other experts in trade finance banking, users of trade finance, and academics working in this field. The results will be returned to you within a month, with the second round of the survey. I hope you will enjoy sharing your thoughts on this topic and will find the ideas from fellow participants valuable.

Background

An array of new services to assist in the financing and conduct of international trade have been introduced in the last three years. Bolero and Tradecard are two examples among several impressive offerings. These services have the potential to substantially change the market: They may, for instance, alter the cost and risk structure of international trade, or change the profitability of users and providers of trade finance. Participants in this study share an interest in the impact that new services will have on international trade and trade finance in particular. This survey aims to assist participants to better understand and prepare for those changes. In the first round we will identify general relationships, and in the second and third round questionnaires we will explore these in more depth. With this background in mind, please share your thoughts on the following questions. It should take about 20 to 30 minutes to complete. Some questions and terms used in questions are linked to a page which clarifies them, click on the blue hyperlinks to see these.

Note: depending on your own background and core interests, some of the questions might not be relevant to you. If a particular question is outside your area of interest, please feel free to skip it and move on to the next question.

ID: Please enter the Survey "Username" you were allocated:
(This appears on the Keyboard Template included with the invitation to join the survey or in the confirmation note you receive after registering. If you are registered but do not have the Username at hand please just enter your full name or your e-mail address. I will substitute these details with your username before aggregating the data).

Q1. The introduction of online trade finance services that compete with traditional paper-based letters of credit, bills of lading and other trade documentation will affect

large international banks, small regional banks,
importers,
exporters,
carriers and freight forwarders,
government agencies, as well as
the businesses actually offering online trade finance services.

Are there “players” in the world of international trade, other than those just listed, that will be affected by a shift from paper-based to electronic trade documentation? Who are those players?

(please separate entries with a comma).

Q2. Changes in the way business processes are carried out are bound to alter the cost of doing business. We have identified the following types of cost as likely to change with a shift to electronic trade documentation, at least for some of the players identified in the first question, the:

cost of each payment transaction,
cost of each carriage document,
installation costs,
periodic service charges,
cost of dealing with irregularities in documentation (such as discrepancies),
cost of dealing with fraudulent transactions.

Can you identify any other costs that users or suppliers of online trade finance services need to consider?

(please separate entries with a comma).

Q3. What is driving the change in each of these costs?

Costs	*One or more* drivers of change in each cost:**
Payment Documents
Carriage Documents
Installation Costs
Periodic Charges
Discrepancies
Fraud

Q4. [Question 4 has been removed].

Q5. Various risks involved in financing trade will also change as electronic methods replace paper-based methods. We have identified the following risks as likely to change for some players:

credit risk (buyer default),
Herstatt risk (settlement risk of the buyer’s bank default),
currency market risk,
sovereign risk (loss caused by a government),
operational risk of a new system failing, and,
systemic risk to the financial system as a whole.

What other risks do you expect to change as we move from paper-based to online trade finance services?

(please separate entries with a comma).

Q6. What is driving the change in each of these risks?

Risks	*One or more* drivers of change in each risk:**
Credit risk
Herstatt / Settlement
Currency / Exchange
Sovereign / Political
Operational
Systemic

Q7. [Question 7 has been removed].

Q8. Small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) will probably have to make some investment in infrastructure to use new online trade services even if their service providers are well-equipped. What network, software, training and other infrastructure to you envision being required by SMEs.

(please separate entries with a comma).

Q9. The questions above ask about changes to risk and cost, and about infrastructure needed to shift from paper-based to online trade finance services. What other changes do you expect to arise from the shift from paper to online. Please consider potential micro- or macro-economic changes such as profitability changes within the banking sector, social or political changes, and any other potential change, even if it is outside the trade & finance sectors.

(please separate entries with a comma).

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